Blitzkrieg: RSF advance deep into Sennar State and storm into the capital Sinja
Sudanese army loses control of state capital Sinja
Shocked residents scrambled to leave the Sennar state capital Sinja yesterday after the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) suddenly and unexpectedly stormed into the city, which lies in a fertile agricultural region along the banks of the Blue Nile.
After smashing the Sudan Armed Forces’ (SAF) defenses along a part of the Jazira-Sennar border at Jebel Moya last Monday, the RSF feigned an attack east toward the heavily defended frontline city of Sennar, before ultimately bypassing that city and advancing south through Sennar’s largely undefended agricultural plain.
Starting in the Jebel Moya area yesterday, June 29 (or during the prior night), the RSF advanced about 75 km to reach Sinja and quickly overran large parts of the city, including the headquarters of the 17th Infantry Division, the city’s main military base.
The attack happened after SAF had dispatched some of its reserves north from Sinja toward Sennar, leaving the city vulnerable.
Altogether, the RSF advanced approximately 115 km over the past week, including 40 km on Monday (June 24) and 75 km yesterday (June 29). The assault was led by Abdel-Rahman al-Bishi, a field commander with ties to Sennar State, and Abu Aqlah Keikel, the sector commander of RSF in Al Jazira State.
Geolocation of videos filmed by combatants confirmed RSF control at the army base, at the main police headquarters in the city, in the main market, at the state government secretariat, and elsewhere. During the night, clashes reportedly continued as SAF fought to retain control of southern parts of the city. At this time, we assess that the RSF control most of Sinja, notwithstanding claims from pro-SAF sources that they repulsed the attack or retook the city late yesterday.
Sudan’s army retains control of the frontline city of Sennar, but can no longer reinforce it from the south—only from the east. Four days ago we indicated in an analysis article that Sennar city was “at risk of partial encirclement,” adding that if this happened, “SAF would lose control of substantial parts of the Sennar State countryside.” (Sennar is the name of both the city and the state).
The city of Sinja has a population of approximately 250,000 people. Many of those who were able to flee went south toward Damazin, a city already hosting thousands of people displaced from the capital Khartoum and other areas. This will worsen Sudan’s already catastrophic humanitarian crisis.
Additionally, if the RSF extend their control in Sennar State, agriculture will be disrupted, deepening Sudan’s already severe grain shortage. International agencies that monitor famine risk recently have warned of an impending famine that could kill thousands of people in parts of Sudan in the coming three months, mostly in Darfur. The severity of this crisis is expected to abate in the final quarter of the year, as the harvest comes in. Less often talked about is the risk of an even deeper famine in 2025, caused in part by the spread of the war into Sudan’s most fertile regions.
Video of civilians fleeing Sinja
Video of RSF troops roaming through central Sinja
What next? Why this is a disaster for Sudan’s military
In addition to the humanitarian impact, the RSF attack on Sinja is likely to have profound political and military consequences.