Breakthrough or breakdown?
Impending Burhan-Hemedti meeting brings risks and opportunities
The leader of Sudan’s military junta, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, is expected to meet in coming days with the leader of the rival Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. Sudanese media report that Dagalo has already left the country, amid conflicting reports over whether the meeting will take place in Uganda or Dijbouti.
The meeting, conceived and facilitated by leaders of the East African bloc IGAD, seeks a breakthrough in negotiations that so far have gone nowhere. It is hoped that top-level engagement by the leaders of both warring parties, and by East African heads of state, could bring renewed energy and seriousness to the talks.
IGAD facilitators may use the meeting as an opportunity to pressure the two sides to make concrete commitments, perhaps in the form of a joint statement prepared in advance. They might also try to reestablish some level of personal rapport between the two leaders, who knew each other well prior to the war.
However, the meeting also risks inflaming the war.…