New security pact inflames regional tensions
What an Egyptian alliance with Somalia means for Sudan and the Horn
ANALYSIS
Egypt has pledged to send as many as 10,000 troops to Somalia under a security pact announced in mid-August, replacing 10,000 Ethiopian troops deployed in Somalia to fight Al-Shabaab militants.
As part of this deal, Egypt already sent two military aircraft to Mogadishu last week carrying weapons and ammunition, according to Reuters.
Egypt’s intervention in Somalia contrasts with its neutral and ambivalent approach to the Sudan conflict. However, the move also signals newfound Egyptian assertiveness that might make an eventual intervention in Sudan more likely.
This deployment would be the largest Egyptian military operation outside of Egypt since Gamal Abdel Nasser’s intervention in Yemen in 1962, and Mohamed Ali’s invasion of Sudan in 1820.
Of course, it remains to be seen if the Egyptian deployment will actually happen, and if so, what impact it will have on Somalia and the region. Preliminarily, however, we can already make several conclusions about Egyptian strategic thinking.