Deepening concern, urgency among Sudan’s neighbors
Cairo conference calls for 'immediate' ceasefire
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The growing risk of state collapse in Sudan is prompting more urgent regional diplomatic efforts to resolve the nation’s 15-month civil war.
A conference of Sudanese “political and civil forces” hosted by the Egyptian government in Cairo concluded Sunday with calls for an immediate ceasefire, despite opposition from a group of politicians aligned with the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).
The conference, themed “Together to Stop the War in Sudan,” brought together rival political factions, including the Taqaddum coalition led by former Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, as well as and representatives of political groups supporting SAF.
However, disagreements delayed the start and ultimately resulted in a communiqué that was rejected by pro-SAF factions.
The final statement condemned “all violations committed in the war” and emphasized preserving Sudan as a unified nation based on citizenship and a federal, democratic, civil state. It also established a committee to pursue lasting peace.
Egypt’s government endorsed these positions. Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, who gave a speech at the conference, urged an “immediate and sustainable cessation of military operations in Sudan to preserve the Sudanese people's resources and state institutions,” he said, as reported by state-run daily Al-Ahram. “Egypt urges the international community to support the conference’s outcomes," he added.
Likewise, President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi highlighted that Egypt “will spare no effort to bridge the gap between the various Sudanese factions [and] end the war,” according to the spokesman for the presidency, Counselor Ahmed Fahmy.
He made these remarks during a meeting Sunday with a delegation of the Sudanese conference participants. Sudan’s Former Prime Minister Hamdok sat in the place of honor to Sisi’s right during this meeting.
Fahmy added, “Politically, the President stressed the need for the transition to the political path of the crisis to include the participation of all parties, in accordance with the Sudanese national interest.”
According to Hamdok, the Cairo Conference marks a shift in Egyptian diplomacy toward dealing with a broader array of Sudanese stakeholders, rather than just the Sudan Armed Forces, as it had done before.
He said, “The Cairo conference is a turning point in the political solution to the Sudanese crisis due to the meeting of the various Sudanese political and civil forces for the first time in this manner to consult on the Sudanese crisis.”
Disagreements erupted during Hamdok's entrance to the conference when representatives of Hamdok’s anti-war Taqaddum Coalition shouted, “Freedom, peace, and justice, peace is the choice of the people,” angering the pro-SAF groups who requested a separate room. Egyptian mediators intervened and later convinced the Sudanese factions to sit in one room. The conference, initially intended to last two days, was cut short by the Egyptian mediators due to tensions.
Jibril Ibrahim, head of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), and Minni Arko Minawi, leader of the Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM), along with other SAF-allied groups, refused to sign the final statement. They criticized the document's lack of explicit condemnation of abuses by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Jibril said the statement ignored the suffering of the Sudanese people at the hands of the RSF. Writing on X, formerly Twitter, Jibril said:
“The invitees responded to Egypt's invitation without hesitation due to its great standing among them, and they found in the opening speech of His Excellency the Minister of Foreign Affairs something that warmed their hearts. But the final statement did not consider the feelings of the people whom the militia subjected to various kinds of torture, and it did not say who made the people poorer and hungry by obstructing food from reaching them. Therefore, we chose not to be a party to it.”
Minawi echoed this sentiment, thanking Egypt but expressing disappointment that the communiqué failed to adequately address the suffering of victims.
In addition to serving as leader of JEM, Jibril is Sudan’s minister of finance, and Minawi is the governor of Greater Darfur. The two politicians met on the sidelines of the Cairo Conference with U.S. Special Envoy Tom Perriello. Also in attendance at the conference were the Foreign Minister of Chad and diplomats representing the European Union, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, South Sudan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Norway, and Saudi Arabia.
International representatives, including the EU Ambassador to Sudan, welcomed Egypt's initiative and stressed the importance of an all-inclusive Sudanese dialogue. They emphasized the need for a ceasefire to prevent further humanitarian suffering.
Ethiopia’s prime minister heads for Sudan
In another major diplomatic development, Sudanese media report today that the Ethiopian prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, is expected to arrive tomorrow in Port Sudan to hold closed discussions with Sudan’s military leader, Lt Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.
Abiy may call on Burhan to return to negotiations, either through the Saudi-led Jeddah track or through the East African bloc IGAD. Since early this year, Al-Burhan has rejected negotiations with the RSF, and his government suspended its involvement in IGAD after East African leaders held a summit in Uganda that was attended by the RSF Commander-in-Chief Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
The stakes have risen for Ethiopia in the past two weeks as the RSF are now threatening two states that border Ethiopia, Blue Nile and Gedaref. An attack on either of those states could send thousands of refugees across the border into Ethiopia.
Last December, the East African bloc IGAD tried to convince Al-Burhan and his rival, the RSF leader, to hold a one-on-one meeting, under IGAD auspices. At the time, the Sudanese military was on the offensive in Omdurman and gaining ground. Excessive optimism around the possibility of a “military solution” may have discouraged the Sudanese military leader from participating in this proposed summit.
Saudi Arabia sends envoy to Port Sudan
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Waleed al-Khereiji has arrived in Port Sudan “to deliver a message” to Sudan’s military leader, Lt Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, according to Saudi state-owned television channel Al-Arabiya.
Apart from some high-level contacts in May, Saudi Arabia has largely sat on the sidelines since the Israeli invasion of Gaza in October last year, whereas Egypt has grown increasingly active in engaging with Sudanese stakeholders to halt the war.
Saudi Arabia hosted ceasefire talks in Jeddah several times last year, which were co-facilitated by the United States. The talks ended in November without much progress. Saudi Arabia is Sudan’s neighbor across the Red Sea, and it hosts a large Sudanese expatriate population. Additionally, it is a long-time investment partner in the country.
‘Major transformation in the coming weeks’
These diplomatic developments come shortly after the Rapid Support Forces extended their control into Sennar State, cutting off infantry divisions in Damazin and Kosti from the rest of the country, which could lead to further military setbacks.
Political and military observers have signaled that the RSF takeover of Sennar marks a turning point in the war.