Fighting set to escalate in Bahri

Khartoum Bahri is the next natural target for the Sudanese army

Fighting erupted yesterday near the Sudanese army’s Signal Corps base in Khartoum Bahri, while on the Omdurman front the army continued to make gains, pushing west into Ombada along Al-Jamiyat Street. 

Now that the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) have accomplished their principal objectives in Omdurman, they are likely to turn their attention to neighboring Bahri (also called Khartoum North), the northeastern of the three major cities of Sudan’s capital region.

SAF control two pockets of territory in Bahri, but most of the city is under control of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The city can be assaulted frontally across the Halfaya Bridge (which is controlled on the Omdurman side by SAF and on the Bahri side by RSF), amphibiously across the Nile, or across the desert north of the city from neighboring River Nile State.

SAF may attempt one or all of these attacks in combination. Frontal attacks across Halfaya Bridge failed earlier in the war, and amphibious operations are invariably challenging. But SAF’s recent advances in the use of drones and artillery make such attacks more feasible. RSF troops stationed along the bank of the Nile have already come under frequent attack by drones and artillery from Omdurman. Additionally, there is some evidence that SAF special forces already have operated across the Nile.

Nevertheless, the most straightforward invasion route would be from River Nile State, the home state of former president Omar al-Bashir and a stronghold of the regime.

SAF’s Commander-in-Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan arrived yesterday in Shendi, headquarters of the 3rd Infantry Division, one of the units that could spearhead an attack on Bahri. Mass recruitment in River Nile State, among other northern states, has swollen the ranks of the 3rd Infantry Division as well as auxiliary forces, including the “Popular Resistance” militia pictured below at a rally in January in Shendi. These irregulars likely are armed by or affiliated with the General Intelligence Service.

An attack from Shendi, in order to reach Bahri, would have to neutralize or bypass RSF units around the Jaili Refinery, near the northern border of Khartoum State.

Meanwhile, SAF cut electricity to Bahri two weeks ago, plunging residents into darkness. Though several million people have fled Sudan’s capital region, many remained behind, having nowhere else to go, or not having enough money to travel. According to the International Organization for Migration, about 3.5 million people fled Khartoum State since last April, out of a total population of about 9 million.

For those who remain behind in Bahri, the most immediate danger zones are around the two existing SAF-controlled areas, which are centered around Kober Prison in the city’s south, and around Kadroo and the city’s northeastern outskirts.

However, SAF are not likely to limit their operations to these areas alone.

With negotiations currently at a standstill, fighting is set to continue, and the people of Bahri are in the crosshairs. The city is the next natural target for the Sudanese army, and a necessary stepping stone before they can storm the capital itself.

Videos

For their part, the RSF still retain an offensive capability, notwithstanding their recent defeat in Omdurman. They could try to preempt an army offensive by wiping out one of the more vulnerable pockets of SAF control in Khartoum or Khartoum Bahri, before the area can be relieved. Another risk is that they try to divert the fighting elsewhere with a surprise offensive, much like the December attack on Wad Madani.

Yesterday’s clashes took place in the Khatmia neighborhood, west of Signal Corps in southern Bahri, and also along Hattab Road, in northern Bahri. Both SAF and RSF sources reported that the RSF were on the offensive against the Signal Corps.

However, we geolocated video of fighting to the Khatmia neighborhood, west of Ingaz Street, which is an established frontline and doesn’t indicate any change of of control.

The next video below was filmed by RSF after clashes with a SAF patrol that was likely launched out of the Kadroo Enclave. The speaker, an RSF captain, claims they captured some prisoners and chased SAF away, saying,

“Those we have captured; we are treating them with good treatment. Now they are with us in our [combat] vehicles. They have eaten, they have broken their Ramadan fasting and thank God things are good. Now we are on Al Hawa (Air) street along the Hattab Road. We have chased these people away 25 kilometers… we have captured from them five tanks and eight Land Cruisers and thank God one of them has been set on fire and we have captured from them many guns including RPGs…”

Meanwhile, in Omdurman, the army continue to exploit the breakdown of RSF resistance in the city’s east, extending their offensive toward the city’s west and south. After taking the Wad al-Bashir junction and the Chinese Friendship Hospital, they have pushed into eastern parts of Ombada.

This video, posted to social media yesterday, shows SAF troops engaging in street fighting at a captured RSF outpost on Al-Jumiyat Street (15.663117, 32.443715) in eastern Ombada, an advance of about 2 km from previously confirmed SAF positions.