Map: Battle looms as Sudan army advances on Khartoum
SAF makes rapid gains north, south, and east of capital
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The Rapid Support Forces’ control over Khartoum has never looked more precarious, as the Sudanese Armed Forces are now threatening it from multiple directions, making particularly rapid gains over the past few days south and southeast of the city.
After capturing the capital of Jazira State south of Khartoum a month ago, the SAF has continued its advance along the Blue Nile, clearing towns and villages throughout the northern part of the state and into southern Khartoum State (on the east bank).
The RSF have fought a rearguard action, occasionally clashing with SAF to stall their advance. But the RSF have not meaningfully slowed their retreat.
If anything, the RSF accelerated their withdrawal over the past three days, relinquishing control of the villages of Kamlin, Al-Tekaina, Al-Eilafon, Abu Gurun, Um Dawaban, and others. Yesterday, the SAF reached within 5-6 km of the Soba Bridge, just south of the sprawling East Nile suburb of Khartoum.
The rapid SAF advance has stoked widespread speculation that the RSF could withdraw from Khartoum altogether, and that the battle for the city may be in its final days. But if they decide to fight street-by-street, the battle could be far from over.
Presently, the RSF have halted their retreat at the Giad Industrial City—a sprawling complex of factories and warehouses 45 km southeast of central Khartoum—and this may be a place where they will make a stand.
The RSF’s recent loss of the Garri Refinery, amid reports of fuel shortages, could help explain the rapid retreat from outlying areas back toward the urban core, where it will be easier for dismounted fighters to halt the SAF advance.
The RSF’s retreat now brings their southern frontline to approximately where it was just over a year ago, prior to the December 2023 offensive into Al-Jazira State. However, their northern flank is now more exposed, having lost control of most of Khartoum Bahri, except for the industrial area and the Kafouri residential district.
SAF has also increased the pressure from the east, bringing troops across the Butana Plain from Kassala State—which they had not done in 2023-2024. SAF’s Commander-in-Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan appeared on this axis Tuesday, giving a speech to troops behind the frontline at the recently captured village of Wad Abu Saleh.
The coordinated advances by SAF from north, south, and east threaten East Nile in particular, since there are no natural barriers to defend it, and fewer RSF troops in this area. Potentially, the RSF will withdraw behind the Nile rather than opt to defend this part of the metropolis, which lacks significant political or military value.
Meanwhile, SAF troops are also breaking out from the Shajara enclave in southwest Khartoum, where dismounted Armored Corps troops and elements of other units have been trapped for a year and a half. Yesterday, February 5, they advanced north into the Remaiyla district and southern parts of the Khartoum Light Industrial Area, bringing them within just a few kilometers of linking up with the SAF troops on the Mogran Axis.
Additionally, from the north, the SAF is threatening the RSF from Bahri and from their headquarters in downtown Khartoum, known as General Command, which was besieged for most of the war but was relieved and reinforced after a breakthrough via Bahri last month. This front is currently quiet, but SAF may renew the offensive soon, aiming to capture the Presidential Palace and other key landmarks.
Likewise, the Mogran Axis is mostly static, with no reports of meaningful SAF advances since October. Army troops are pinned down on this front by RSF snipers in high rises around the Bank of Sudan. Nevertheless, SAF’s control of western Mogran, and its two bridges linking it to Omdurman, poses a significant threat to the RSF, and they must defend this front to prevent SAF from advancing into the downtown.
Vehicles seen fleeing Khartoum via Jebel Aulia
A potential chokepoint for the RSF is Jebel Aulia, a city southwest of Khartoum on the east bank of the White Nile. A road along a dam across the river at Jebel Aulia is the only route still controlled by the RSF between Khartoum and their homeland in Darfur.
Aerial videos from this area, filmed several days ago by SAF drones, showed hundreds of vehicles lining the dam road and its approaches.
Pro-SAF analysts interpreted this to mean that RSF troops were abandoning Khartoum and would give up the city without a fight. However, most of the vehicles appeared to be civilian and commercial vehicles, not combat vehicles, possibly carrying looted goods or equipment. The vehicles themselves also have value, and the RSF have engaged in a lively trade of exporting stolen vehicles via Chad and Libya.
The convoy could also include Khartoum-area civilians belonging to certain ethnic groups, who fear being targeted in reprisal killings if SAF retake the capital. Last month, several Darfuri and South Sudanese civilians were killed in Wad Madani after SAF captured that city. Reprisal killings also were reported in Khartoum Bahri.
SAF attacked the convoys in Jebel Aulia by air yesterday, February 5, leaving burned and wrecked vehicles lining the dam road and its surroundings. It is unclear whether used warplanes, long-range drones, or helicopters.
If the dam is destroyed or damaged, it could cause a catastrophic flood.
Following yesterday’s air raids, the RSF may have difficulty using the Jebel Aulia Bridge, which also was bombed previously, forcing the RSF to improvise a replacement bridge across the lock that crosses the dam.
Unless the RSF can capture another brigde, suh as the one at Ad-Douiem in White Nile State, they will have difficulty supplying and reinforcing Khartoum.
Civilians in danger
The coming days will be a critical phase in Sudan’s nearly two-year civil war. The capital is hugely important politically, symbolically and practically. The Sudanese military is prepared to commit huge numbers of men to the fight for the city.
It is unclear if the RSF are prepared to make the same commitment. The RSF recently withdrew from several other cities without major urban combat, including Sinja, Wad Madani, and Hassahissa. Parts of Bahri likewise were evacuated relatively quickly.
But Khartoum is different.
If the RSF decides to defend the city, they will have certain advantages as the defender in a dense urban environment.
In that case, civilians are likely to suffer heavily. Shelling in neighboring Omdurman already killed 54 civilians on February 4, and another six people on February 4, while injuring hundreds. Doctors Without Borders reported a “mass influx of wounded patients in recent days,” not only in Khartoum State but also in North and South Darfur. The charity said that the warring parties show “little respect for civilians life.”
MSF also warned that the fighting could cause “famine or a famine-like situation” for millions of Sudanese later this year.
“The violence that the Rapid Support Forces and Sudanese Armed Forces are inflicting on civilians right across Sudan is tragic and appalling,” said Ozan Agbas, MSF’s emergency manager. “The violence continues ruining lives, making it harder for people to access healthcare and putting healthcare workers at risk. We urge the warring parties to protect civilian life and spare them from this war on people.”