Military outlook: What to expect from dry season fighting in Sudan

Risks of escalation in west, central, and southeastern Sudan

ANALYSIS

A three-month period of seasonal rains is coming to an end in Sudan, heralding the beginning of a potentially vicious new phase of the nation’s civil war.

The rains turned parts of the countryside to mud and flooded seasonal rivers (wadis), hampering off-road movement. This resulted in a lull in combat activity since July, except in urban areas. As the earth dries, the fighting is set to pick up.

In this article, we assess the likelihood of escalation in different parts of the country, outlining various scenarios.