Rallying the Beja

A new video posted to Facebook shows the Beja Nazir (tribal chief) Sayed Tirik with tribal gunmen rallying support for the Sudan Armed Forces in Hadalya, a village in Kassala State. The RSF lack support in eastern, central, and northern Sudan.

The East, in particular, has not witnessed any clashes. Although the RSF have the upper hand in fighting in Khartoum, I don't believe that they will be able to extend their control to the Red Sea. Even if they win in central Sudan, a rump state will survive in the east and north, governed by SAF or a successor regime.

This is a key historical difference between Hemedti's RSF and the Mahdist movement of Mohammad Ahmad in the 1880s. Although both depended heavily on fighters from Darfur and Kordofan, the Mahdiyya actually started in central Sudan and won significant support among the Beja too. The Mahdi's best commander was a Beja, the slave trader Osman Digna, who broke the British square at the Battle of Tamai in 1884.