RSF are likely using Turkish-made rocket launchers
RSF are likely using Turkish-made rocket launchers
Multiple Launch Rocket System previously was misidentified as Israeli-made
Videos surfaced last October showing the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) deploying a multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) in Khartoum North. In the following months, various open-source reports documented extensive damage in densely populated urban areas of Omdurman.
Geolocation confirmed the precise location of the rocket launcher and its direction of fire, but the weapon system itself proved difficult to identify.
One weapons expert identified it as possibly North Korean, while several Arabic-language media identified it as an Israeli-made LAR-160. In a 15-part thread on Twitter (X), Eekad Facts, an Arabic open source intelligence platform, concluded that the video was a “subtle indication of undisclosed relations with Israel,” asking, “Could there be a secret alliance between Hemedti [the RSF leader] and Israel?
Others suggested the MLRS was a Serbian, Russian, or Chinese variant.
Contrary to these claims, we identify the weapon as a Turkish-made rocket launcher mounted on a German MAN TG truck chassis. The weapon is part of an arsenal used by the RSF in its ongoing war against the Sudanese military.
Understating the MLRS
Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS): The Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), formerly known as the General Support Rocket System (GSRS), was designed to deliver rapid, high-volume firepower against critical targets. The aim is to enhance the indirect fire capabilities of a field army, MLRS provides counter-fire, suppression of enemy troops, surface-to-surface, anti-air defence, and personnel targets. Source: Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining.
Ammunitions: A rocket is a self-propelled munition powered by a rocket motor. Essentially, a rocket motor consists of a tube where fuel burns and escapes through an opening, propelling the rocket forward. This forward thrust is generated by directing the expanding gases from the burning fuel through nozzles. The 122 mm rockets used in BM-21 systems have been utilised by numerous countries and irregular forces. These rockets have been deployed in various configurations and launch vehicles, including individual launch tubes. They feature seven nozzles. Unlike missiles, unguided rockets like those fired from the BM-21 cannot adjust their path after launch, as they use solid fuel and lack a guidance system. The 122 mm rockets are fin-stabilised and equipped with a steel high-explosive fragmentation (H.E.) warhead. Upon impact, the rocket fins, venturis and umbilical part get detached, which are the main rocket motor launching part. This normally leave visible evidence of the ammunition type. Source: Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining.
Significance: MLRS are designed to deliver a large volume of firepower over a wide area, making them particularly devastating in cities where buildings and infrastructure are closely packed. The indiscriminate nature of these weapons can lead to severe humanitarian consequences, including loss of life, displacement of residents, and long-term disruption of essential services and community structures. The deployment of MLRS in such environments often raises serious ethical and legal concerns regarding compliance with international humanitarian law.
Events Map, Timeline & Trajectories analysis
October 7, 2023: The first geolocated sighting of the RSF using MLRS was documented. This initial sighting featured mobile rocket launchers.
October 9, 2023: A second geolocation revealed stationary rocket launchers in close proximity to the initial sighting. This may indicate that the RSF has multiple launchers within the same area. And the mount is adaptable to deferent vehicles types.
November 8, 2023: We observed Images showing a rocket motor and fin stabilisers holders, resemble the 122 mm high-explosive (HE) rockets fragmentations. The images posted on X.com, were captured in Khartoum North at Al Barka Mosque.
The impact crater is in a C-shape, indicative of the rocket's direction. Given that the mosque is angled 49 degrees toward Makkah and considering the rocket's minimum and maximum range (5-40 km), it was estimated that the rocket launching site from Wadi Sayyidna military base an area controlled by Sudan Armed force (SAF).
November 9, 2023: A fourth sighting of the MLRS was geolocated from an image posted on X.com.
November 11, 2023: Civilians provided images documenting extensive damage to buildings, with one image showing rocket motor fragments most likely from 122 mm rockets. each circular separated by 5 km distance from each other. Five kilometres is the minimum average of the 122 range. Hence max range is 40 km with from area of interest (AOI).
The extent and pattern of the damage suggest the artillery fire originated from the east. Given the minimum range of the rockets, it is most likely they were launched from Bahri, used by the RSF. The damage to the residential area spans approximately 500 square metres. MLRS are designed to create a kill zones. The radius of the damaged area is also an indicative of the unit type in use.
December 25, 2023: A video showing an MLRS on fire was geolocated in Bahri. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) claimed they had targeted and destroyed the MLRS.
January 1, 2024: A second video surfaced on X.com, showing an MLRS on fire at a different location.
The MLRS’s observed so far were within ranges of approximately 6km and 9km, ideal for 122 mm rockets. The rocket fragments suggest they are likely from the High Explosive (H.E.) variant.
Why we think it’s NOT the Israeli-made LAR-160
The LAR-160 utilises the MK 160 mm calibre, with "MK" denoting a specific version of the product as per the US Navy Military Standard MIL-STD-1661. To date, this variant has not been observed in Sudan. According to Israel Military Industry, the rocket box pods are factory-manufactured to 13, 18, or 26 zig zag design. The RSF MLRS in Sudan features a 20-tube rocket launcher box, which does not conform to the standard configurations of the LAR-160.
Proliferation of 122 mm rockets in Sudan
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have substantial 122 mm rocket manufacturing capabilities, primarily through the Military Industry Corporation (MIC), which produces 122 mm propellants. This type of rocket is the most widely deployed globally and has been copied or manufactured under licence by many countries. According to a September 29, 2022 article on Defence Web, Sudan’s Military Industry Corporation (MIC) is actively promoting its 122 mm artillery rocket system to prospective customers. This suggests a significant domestic production capacity and potential for widespread proliferation within Sudan.
Identifying the Weapon
Various hypotheses about the MLRS type include systems like the PHL-11, BM-21, SR4 Norinco, and the famous Serbian Morava. However, the vehicle designs of these systems differ significantly from the observed MLRS truck in Bahri. Notably, the launch box pods are arranged in a double bank rotating system, which has not been documented in use by SAF units during the current conflict. Additionally, the truck features a front-mounted crane. This suggest ammunition reloading capability, and a unique looking hydraulic weight support system attached. That may suggest the truck is designed for heavy duty operations.
To minimise analysis cognitive error and evaluate the multiple possibilities, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) methodology are applied. The evidence was assessed based on visual matches with the truck / system, official company statements and country political interests. Focusing on similar military systems capabilities only.
The confidence levels are evaluated based on the five ACH imposed, with applied Yardstick to convey the language of uncertainty for each hypothesis. Each hypothesis was evaluated based on three criteria: Truck / System Visual Match, Document Match and Political Interest.
Identifying the truck
ROKETSAN, renowned for its land MLRS capabilities, closely matches the visual characteristics of the observed Truck resembling German made Rheinmetall MAN TG-Mil. Featuring custom-made pods with 20 tubes. Moreover, a June 11, 2008 report from Defence Türkiye indicated ROKETSAN's strategic focus on marketing its defence systems outside the UAE, with Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan highlighted as key markets. This supports the plausibility of the weapon being deployed by the RSF in Sudan. Additionally, a July 2021 paper by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy suggested Türkiye significant political interest in Sudan. The Windows and cabin doors also resemble the same truck used by the RSF in Bahri.
ROKETSAN, established under the Turkish Armed Forces Foundation, provides a land systems capable of delivering firepower with minimal dispersion and maximum warhead effectiveness against targets within 3-40 km range. Each system is capable of creating a minimum fire blanket cover of 500 square meters.
Understanding the launching system
Each firing tube is housed in preloaded, sealed 20 tube pods. The full system capacity is 40 tubes. The preloaded setting aid facilitating quick reloading time using a hydraulic crane arm, which enhances operational efficiency with 5 min reloading time. Compared to BM-21 models which need minimum 10 min.
Multiple Human intelligence (HUMINT) sources suggested that the system is mounted on the chassis of a German off-road truck, such as the MAN TG-Mil and similar variant. The system mount is versatile and can be adjusted to other military standard truck chassis with some engineering knowledge.
In contrast, the LAR-160 and the rest of the MLRS’s do not align with the available evidence. The white coloration of the MLRS could potentially signify specific operational or political considerations. The MLRS was never reported as an SAF owned unit nor being observed utilising the system yet.
Conclusion
Geolocation data and open source analysis indicate that the RSF's MLRS in Bahri is not the Israel-made LAR-160, but is more likely a ROKETSAN system, which aligns with evidence found.
Open-source intelligence operates within the realm of probabilities, and Disinformation / Misinformation can have significant geopolitical implications. This highlights the critical need for accurate information’s in conflict zones. Since life hinge on accurate reporting there can be no room for half truth or falsehood. Especially as Sudan's conflict has now escalated into the world’s largest hunger crisis. How the RSF managed to capture such system ?
A question remain subject to a deferent analysis.