Sennar at risk of partial encirclement
Civilian evacuation accelerates as fighting reaches city outskirts
ANALYSIS
We reported Monday that the Rapid Support Forces’ (RSF) attack on Jebel Moya “had the appearance of a fast-moving raid, rather than a full-scale invasion of the kind that targeted Wad Madani last December.”
Today we are partially modifying that assessment. Several factors lead us to conclude that the RSF operation in Sennar State is more serious than a mere tactical raid, though it remains unclear if they have the strength or intention to attack Sennar City itself, or are merely threatening it.
In the first place, RSF have kept control of Jebel Moya rather than withdrawing, contrary to some reports that the Sudan Armed Forces quickly recaptured the area. SAF attempted a counterattack Monday afternoon, unsuccessfully.
Secondly, RSF brought artillery with them to Jebel Moya. Initially, we stated that videos of these artillery trucks probably were filmed along the Wad al-Haddad axis, north of Sennar City. Subsequently, however, we verified through geolocation that they were on the Kosti-Sennar road, only 22 km west of Sennar City.
Thirdly, recently there have been increased RSF troop movements in Al Jazira State, north of Sennar. RSF announced the arrival of reinforcements in Jazira State and held a big rally three days before the assault on Jebel Moya. The large gathering was used for propaganda purposes, as RSF’s media team released a video (below) showcasing their strength. Such a large gathering would also have been an opportunity to discuss operational issues, command structures, and means of communications.
Fourthly, civilians began fleeing Sennar en masse yesterday, amid reports of RSF incursions into the city outskirts. While this is not itself evidence that RSF intend to assault the city, it does suggest a lack of public confidence in SAF’s defenses. The evacuation began during the day and continued into the night. Videos from Sennar showed civilians leaving in buses, riskshaws, cars, and lorries.
Sennar Youth Gathering, one of the protest groups during the uprising that toppled Bashir regime, reported last night,
“Sennar is experiencing severe displacements and a public panic… We do not know how far the [RSF] forces have advanced except that they are on the outskirts of the city, according to eyewitnesses. Some soldiers fled and returned to their base, and clashes are still ongoing, with many projectiles falling on civilian neighborhoods. Citizens, please be careful and stay away from conflict zones and please do not spread rumors and be sure the news is correct.”
The RSF advance into the state threatens to cut off any SAF troops still based in northwest Sennar State, such as those guarding the Managil-Sennar road and frontline positions near the Sennar Sugar Factory. If the RSF continue their advance toward the southeast, they would cut off the main road between Sennar and Sudan’s southern cities of Sinja and Damazin, which have major military bases.
That would leave Sennar surrounded, except for the Blue Nile Briges: Sennar Bridge, which is near the frontline, and the Sennar Dam Bridge. SAF would lose control of substantial parts of the Sennar State countryside.
SAF could avoid this scenario by counter-attacking from Sennar and retaking Jebel Moya, by sending a relief force from Kosti/Rabak, or by moving their defensive line to the south. However, previous attempts by SAF to conduct counter-offensives to retake lost territory have all failed, except for a months-long campaign in Omdurman earlier this year.
SAF and its former paramilitary ally, the RSF, have fought a civil war since April 2023. Proposed ceasefire talks are on hold after the SAF commander-in-chief Lt Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan refused to participate and vowed to achieve a total military victory.