Sudan army seeks South Sudan's help
Al-Burhan seeks supply route to South Kordofan ahead of dry season fighting
The Commander-in-Chief of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) traveled to neighboring South Sudan on Monday to meet with President Salva Kiir, seeking the help of a former rival against a new one, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Ostensibly the talks dealt with the opening of a “humanitarian” corridor to the border state of South Kordofan, though in fact the Sudanese military ruler, Lt-Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, is seeking Juba’s cooperation in military matters.
The talks also touched on the ongoing disruption of cross-border oil flows. The two sides agreed to form a joint ministerial committee to address this, but in fact neither side can restore the oil because of a pipeline rupture in an RSF-controlled area.
Sudan and South Sudan split in 2011 after a six-year transition, following a long civil war. Each country subsequently suffered a new civil war of its own.
The north (Republic of Sudan) is currently ravaged by a full-blown civil war, while the South (Republic of South Sudan) is generally at peace since a 2018 peace deal, though it still suffers from a few local insurgencies, high levels of inter-communal violence, and an economic crisis that could trigger an eventual slide back to war.
Kiir’s government, which is neutral in the war to the north, nevertheless has ties with both warring parties. On the one hand, South Sudan has relied on Sudan since independence to transport its oil through pipelines to the Red Sea. It also relies on the Sudanese government in fields such as civil aviation and higher education.
On the other hand, elements Kiir’s regime do business with the RSF, buying weapons and looted vehicles from the RSF and smuggling goods into RSF-controlled territories. Intelligence cooperation between the RSF and Kiir’s government predates the war.
Additionally, the Juba regime has close historical ties with the SPLM-North, an insurgency in the Nuba Mountains of South Kordofan.
Kiir personally fought the Sudanese military in two civil wars, starting when he was a teenager in the 1960s. As president, he has had a distrustful, transactional attitude toward the north, at times striking deals and other times seeking to undermine the Sudanese government. During the visit Monday, he received Al-Burhan warmly and with high honors.
Potential areas of cooperation
Several military issues are on the agenda between Sudan and South Sudan. First, Al-Burhan wants to reinforce and resupply a handful of besieged military units in South and West Kordofan, states that border South Sudan. Sudanese army units in Hegleig, Babanusa, Dilling, and Kadugli risk defeat or starvation if they cannot be resupplied.
In the case of Hegleig, troops can be resupplied directly from South Sudan by road, but for Kadugli and Dilling, flights cannot arrive safely without permission from the SPLM-North. Potentially, Juba could lean on the SPLM-North to permit flights into these cities.
According to a news release from Sudan’s Transitional Sovereignty Council, Kiir and Burhan on Monday discussed a potential “humanitarian aid” corridor to South Kordofan via Juba: “The two sides agreed to consult to reach a mechanism to transport humanitarian aid to South Kordofan via Juba International Airport.”
It is unclear if SPLM-North will approve this supply route. Humanitarian access talks between the rebel group and SAF collapsed last May, after SPLM-N rejected an air bridge to Kadugli and other cities for fear that SAF would use it to smuggle weapons and supplies.
Separately, Kiir and Burhan may have discussed the issue of South Sudanese mercenaries serving with the RSF. This topic is widely discussed in the Sudanese press, but the presence of South Sudanese troops among the RSF does not indicate that the Juba government is supporting the RSF. In fact, most of the RSF’s Southern fighters are recruited from South Sudanese communities already living in the north, particularly in the outskirts of Khartoum, where destitute refugees have few options for how to earn a livelihood. Nevertheless, Burhan may have sought reassurances from Kiir to curtail the flow of mercenary troops.
Lastly, Burhan is eager to repatriate several hundred Sudanese troops that recently retreated from West Kordofan (Sudan) into neighboring Northern Bahr al-Ghazal (South Sudan). With Kiir’s permission, these troops could be redeployed to rejoin the fight against the RSF elsewhere.
Humanitarian conditions
Citizens in South Kordofan are suffering from hunger and economic crisis due to the severing of commercial trade routes, disruptions to agriculture, and mass displacement.
According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification report for Sudan, an estimated 792,000 people in South Kordofan are projected to be in Phase 3 (“Crisis”) food insecurity in the current period (June-September), while 404,000 are in Phase 4 (“Emergency”), and 23,000 are in Phase 5 (“Catastrophe”). These figures include both SAF-controlled, RSF-controlled, and SPLM-controlled areas.
Starting in October and November, when harvests start to come in, these hunger levels will recede, at least temporarily.
Certain SAF-controlled cities face the greatest risk of famine because fighting has cut supply lines. FEWS NET, a U.S.-funded famine watchdog, reported September 5,
“In August, direct fighting continued in multiple areas that face a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5), including in Dilling and Kadugli of South Kordofan and in Khartoum. In Dilling, clashes escalated as SAF attempted to break the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N)’s siege on their supply lines.”
“Kadugli similarly remains besieged as RSF obstructs key routes. With commercial flows from South Sudan into South Kordofan increasingly restricted due to flooding, market supplies are severely limited and food prices in markets such as Kadugli are among the highest in Sudan. Food consumption gaps and acute malnutrition are likely worsening in and around Dilling, Kadugli, and parts of SPLM-N controlled areas, driven by very low household purchasing power, high levels of displacement, and conflict-induced restrictions on the population’s ability to search for food, access services, or move to safer areas.”
