Staged assassination attempt on Sudan's military ruler after peace overture
Attack follows a pattern of other false flag drone attacks
Sudan’s military ruler, Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, survived an alleged assassination attempt this morning, one day after his government signaled it might be open to participating in ceasefire talks in Switzerland.
The Sudanese military leader emerged defiant shortly after the alleged attack, prompting comparisons to the attempted assassination of U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump two weeks ago.
One widely circulating meme on Sudanese social media repurposed an image of Trump on the day of that shooting, crudely pasting Burhan’s head in place of Trump’s and replacing the American flag with the Sudanese flag.
Trump was struck by a bullet in the ear July 13 and afterwards shouted, “Fight, fight, fight” to his supporters, before he was escorted away by security agents. His popularity increased after the attack and his political opponent, President Joe Biden, dropped out of the presidential race a week later.
For his part, Burhan was attending a military parade and graduation ceremony for cadets from the Air and Naval colleges in Gebeit, Red Sea State, when the gathering allegedly was struck by two suicide drones. The small city is two hours west of the de facto capital Port Sudan, more than 500 km from the nearest active frontline.
The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) wrote in a press statement that five people were killed and others suffered minor injuries in an attack by two “hostile drones.” The statement was unusual because the SAF press office is generally slow in responding to breaking news, yet this statement was issued almost immediately after the attack.
Afterwards, Burhan appeared among crowds of supporters chanting the pro-army, pro-war slogan, “one army, one people.” He also visited the lightly injured survivors at Gibeit Hospital and attended a hasty funeral for the five reported victims.
Who would want to kill Burhan?
Speculation is rife among Sudanese about who could be responsible for the attack, with some suggesting it is a real warning shot from regime hardliners opposed to peace talks, others blaming the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and still others suggesting Burhan’s government itself staged the attack.
In our view, the RSF likely did not carry out this attack because they do not have drones with long-range attack capabilities. Additionally, the RSF stand to gain little from attacking Burhan, who is unpopular and widely viewed as incompetent.
The attack follows a pattern of suspicious drone attacks against cities controlled by the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), including in Atbara, Gedaref, Kosti and elsewhere—all in areas far from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The Rapid Support Forces stand to gain little from attacking Burhan, who is unpopular and widely viewed as incompetent.
In April, we characterized the attack on Atbara as a “false flag operation” aimed at strengthening the hand of the pro-war camp and undermining the likelihood of a resumption of ceasefire negotiations. The attack on Atbara targeted the Al-Bara Bin Malik Brigade, a militant group that fights alongside the Sudan Armed Forces and has ties with influential Islamists from the former regime. It also has played a leading role in operating drones in several frontline areas.
At least two other “drone attacks”—in Gedaref and Kosti—targeted buildings belonging to the General Intelligence Service, which has carried out a campaign of sweeping arrests targeting perceived opponents of the military regime. These alleged attacks generally took place at night and were not confirmed by independent sources.
Political fallout
Politically, this assassination attempt could benefit Burhan in several ways. First, it could help put to rest rumors that he is a “traitor” who is responsible for military setbacks—an allegation spread by hardliners opposed to negotiations with the RSF, who also want to use more aggressive military tactics against the RSF.
Second, the attack could help justify an ongoing crackdown on perceived opponents of the military regime. Throughout army-controlled areas, security forces have arrested thousands of dissidents on charges of spying or collaborating with the RSF, including anti-war activists, foreign refugees, and western Sudanese targeted for ethnic reasons. An atmosphere of paranoia, fear, and anger at the RSF prevails throughout much of northern and eastern Sudan, helping to fuel military recruitment and undercut public support for negotiations.
The timing of this attack is noteworthy since it comes a day after Sudan’s foreign ministry asked for consultations with the United States government over proposed ceasefire talks in Switzerland, including on the form, agenda, and the attendees.
This reply, although noncommittal, was the most openness shown by the Sudanese military government toward ceasefire talks since last year. The other warring party, the RSF, already have accepted the invitation to participate in the ceasefire talks.
In remarks to cadets before the attack, Burhan rejected negotiations with the RSF, appearing to distance himself from the position taken by his foreign ministry just one day before.
The U.S. State Department has offered to mediate ceasefire talks in Switzerland. After today’s attack, a source in the State Department told Al-Sharq news channel, “We are aware of reports of a drone attack in Sudan and confirm that we oppose violence.”
U.S. Special Envoy Tom Perriello recently held consultations with the Arab League, East African bloc IGAD, and the United Nations Special envoy in preparation for the proposed ceasefire talks. In a social media post yesterday, he claimed strong support and optimism for the peace initiative among Sudanese civilians, citing talks that he held yesterday in Nairobi with a diverse group of stakeholders.
Lack of visual evidence
At time of publication, we have not seen any definitive visual evidence of the attack on the military parade attended by Burhan this morning. There are no videos of the drone, the explosion, debris, or dead or wounded victims.
One widely circulating video (below) shows panicked attendees fleeing from the event, which was attended by military officers and families of the graduating cadets. It shows some smoke in the distance. Using geolocation, we can confirm that this was filmed in Gebeit in Red Sea State (18.959002, 36.838152).
Another video purports to show the moments just before the drone struck. Several attendees are seen looking up at the sky, the whizzing sound of a drone can be heard, before the cameraman begins running and an explosion is heard.