Storm clouds over Sudan as fighting pauses
Ground fighting has died down in central Sudan in recent days as both sides have paused major operations to consolidate their positions and prepare for next moves.
The Rapid Support Forces’ recent Sennar offensive has put the Sudanese military in a dire position in the southeastern part of the country, encircling the city of Sennar, opening a new front in Gedaref, and cutting off White Nile and Blue Nile states.
However, seasonal rains and overstretched logistics have complicated military movements, giving RSF commanders reasons to pause.
Meanwhile, morale and public confidence in the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) have plunged. In Gedaref, the Sudanese military and allied groups are training farmers, women, old men, and boys in villages along a thinly defended frontier along the Rahad River. In White Nile, huge numbers of young recruits lack uniforms, heavy weaponry, and combat vehicles as they prepare for the next wave of RSF attacks.
Sennar, which saw the heaviest fighting recently, is again mostly calm. After attacking SAF positions around Sennar City on July 11, the RSF have since halted their attack. It now appears that we were premature in our assessment that the RSF were about to assault the city. Instead, only some skirmishes, aerial attacks, and reconnaissance operations are reported in parts of Sennar, White Nile, and Al-Jazira.
Threats to Managil
In the past day or two, the Sudanese military appears to be increasingly concerned about potential RSF attacks against Managil and White Nile.
Local media reported RSF drone activity above Managil on Wednesday night. Although some media outlets reported that the drones carried out attacks, injuring several civilians, typically the RSF only use drones for reconnaissance purposes and artillery spotting (unlike SAF, which also uses them to drop mortar bombs).
The Managil Local Security Committee held a meeting Thursday—an indication of concern—according to state-run media. The city is located in western Jazira State but is linked with the overall White Nile Sector, which is cut off from Eastern Sudan. It is the only city in Jazira State that didn’t fall to the RSF in December-January last year.
Later on Wednesday, pro-SAF sources on social media reported aerial attacks north and east of Managil, including at Al Huda village, though we cannot confirm this.
Airstrikes in White Nile
Meanwhile, videos also emerged from RSF sources of civilian casualties in Al-Alaqa, in northern White Nile, allegedly due to SAF attacks with barrel bombs. This village is 115 km north of the SAF garrison at Ad-Douiem, on the west bank of the Nile, an area that has not seen much fighting, but where some RSF troops have gathered.
RSF control about 2,500 square kilometers in the northern part of White Nile, but none of the major cities.
The rest of White Nile State is still firmly under SAF control but is particularly vulnerable to assault after the fall of Sennar State to the east. The two states share a border of 180 km. Fighting is ongoing in the Jebel Dud area (“Jebel Moya axis”) along the Rabak-Sennar road, about 30 km inside Sennar State. Additionally, a convoy of RSF combat vehicles was seen at Jebel Sarjayn, 65-70 km east of Rabak.
White Nile also shares a border of more than 300 km with RSF-controlled North Kordofan, as well as a border with RSF-controlled parts of Khartoum State in the north, along a tarmac road, which the RSF used for a raid toward ad-Douiem in May.
These geographic factors make it difficult for SAF, as defender, to predict the direction of an attack. The Sudanese army, which typically fights from static defensive positions, will be at a considerable disadvantage if the RSF attack White Nile State.
An attack by the RSF on White Nile State could send tens or hundreds of thousands of people fleeing south toward Renk County in South Sudan.
In a video that circulated by RSF social media accounts Thursday, the top RSF field commander on the western bank of the White Nile, Ahmed Sheikh Kabar, boasted that the paramilitary would soon take over the state. “God willing, sooner rather than later, White Nile State will be ours,” he said. “Soon I will sit in the headquarters of the 18th Division in Kosti.”
Video of the Day
This video shows civilians floating a Hilux pickup truck across the Dinder River, attempting to escape from the RSF toward Gedaref State.
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